SINGAPORE (ICIS)–Click here to see the latest blog post on Asian Chemical Connections by John Richardson.
China could see net polypropylene (PP) exports of 2.6 million tonnes in 2023 compared to net imports this year of around 3.4 million tonnes. And demand growth could be as low as minus 3% next year after flat growth in 2022.
Get used to it, it’s the new China.
In detail, here are all of our scenarios for China’s net exports in 2023 (even in the best-case scenario, it seems possible that China will become a net exporter next year):
- Scenario 1 for next year is based on 3% demand growth and 78% local operating rate, the ICIS base case. With local capacity still expected to increase by 16% in 2023 compared to this year, China would shift to a small net export position of around 200,000 tons.
• Scenario 2 for 2023 assumes stable demand growth and a base operating rate of 78%. Net exports would be around 1.2 million tonnes. Scenario 3 projects demand growth of minus 3% and increases operating rates to 80% assuming that China wants to become a bigger export player. Net exports would be around 2.6 million tons.
Editor’s Note: This blog post is an opinion piece. The opinions expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of CIHI.